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Obama wins mock election in a landslide
Published: Monday, November 3, 2008 - 1:14am
URBANA — By an overwhelming margin, Sen. Barack Obama won the Gargoyle's schoolwide mock election survey conducted in classes Oct. 22 through 24.
The Democratic presidential nominee also took the lead on all of the specific issues included in the polling.
Of the 302 students surveyed, 281 indicated a preference for a candidate — in other words, 281 votes were cast in the "mock election" aspect of our survey. Obama won 83 percent of the vote, compared to 12 percent for McCain. Five percent voted for another candidate.
Obama was viewed favorably by 83 percent of students, while McCain was rated the same by 23 percent.
According to the Student Services Office, Uni has 308 students, so the survey reached 98 percent of the student body.
Percentage-wise, freshmen were the most supportive of Obama, giving him 91 percent of their vote. By a small margin, Obama fared worst among subfreshmen, receiving only 78 percent of their support.
Support for McCain was highest among subbies and lowest among freshmen. Nineteen percent of subbies voted for McCain, while only 4 percent of freshmen did the same.
Our survey also asked voters to compare the candidates on various issues and character traits. Although Obama beat McCain on all categories, the results perhaps bring to light the areas in which Obama supporters viewed McCain more positively. For example, 42 percent of students indicated they trusted McCain more on the issue of national security.
On character traits, Obama again led by wide margins. Students indicated McCain's strongest trait to be that he put his country's interests ahead of his own — perhaps a reflection of the McCain campaign's "Country First" slogan. Still, only 33 percent of students felt that "putting country first" described McCain better than Obama; 70 percent felt the opposite.
More detailed results from our survey are posted below. Although our survey reached all but 10 Uni students, it should be emphasized that it is not scientific in any way. Various factors could have introduced bias.
Percentages may add up to more than 100% as respondents had the option to indicate that the statements applied to both candidates equally.
|
Obama
|
McCain
|
|
| Is a strong and decisive leader |
75%
|
24%
|
| Shares your values |
67%
|
14%
|
| Understands people’s needs |
79%
|
24%
|
| Is honest and trustworthy |
66%
|
25%
|
| Puts the country’s interests ahead of his own |
70%
|
33%
|
| Is inspiring |
79%
|
13%
|
| Will bring positive change to Washington |
78%
|
13%
|
| Has good judgment |
76%
|
26%
|
Percentages may add up to more than 100% as respondents had the option to indicate that they trusted both candidates equally to handle an issue.
|
Obama
|
McCain
|
|
| National security |
51%
|
42%
|
| Foreign affairs |
67%
|
23%
|
| The war in Iraq |
71%
|
20%
|
| Energy independence |
73%
|
18%
|
| The economy |
67%
|
15%
|
| Taxes |
64%
|
23%
|
| Health care |
71%
|
16%
|
| Education |
77%
|
17%
|
Electorate breakdown
Notes:
– Third-party candidates are now included in percentages, but are not listed. The remaining vote percentage in each row up to 100% is the percentage won by third-party candidates.
– The following tables are formatted similarly to CNN's exit poll data pages. For information on how to read these tables, please see the explanation from CNN.com.
| Vote by Gender |
McCain
|
Obama
|
| Male (51%) |
16%
|
81%
|
| Female (48%) |
7%
|
87%
|
| Vote by Grade Level |
McCain
|
Obama
|
| Subfreshmen (21%) |
19%
|
78%
|
| Freshmen (19%) |
4%
|
91%
|
| Sophomores (21%) |
12%
|
82%
|
| Juniors (20%) |
11%
|
85%
|
| Seniors (20%) |
13%
|
81%
|
| Vote by Opinion of McCain |
McCain
|
Obama
|
| Very Favorable (6%) |
93%
|
7%
|
| Somewhat Favorable (16%) |
33%
|
55%
|
| Neither Favorable nor Unfavorable (17%) |
4%
|
93%
|
| Somewhat Unfavorable (36%) |
3%
|
96%
|
| Very Unfavorable (25%) |
0%
|
96%
|
| Vote by Opinion of Obama |
McCain
|
Obama
|
| Very Favorable (58%) |
0%
|
99%
|
| Somewhat Favorable (30%) |
6%
|
86%
|
| Neither Favorable nor Unfavorable (4%) |
54%
|
31%
|
| Somewhat Unfavorable (3%) |
80%
|
10%
|
| Very Unfavorable (5%) |
93%
|
0%
|
| Vote by Opinion of Palin |
McCain
|
Obama
|
| Very Favorable (4%) |
100%
|
0%
|
| Somewhat Favorable (6%) |
53%
|
35%
|
| Neither Favorable nor Unfavorable (9%) |
30%
|
70%
|
| Somewhat Unfavorable (15%) |
14%
|
73%
|
| Very Unfavorable (67%) |
1%
|
97%
|
| Vote by Opinion of Biden |
McCain
|
Obama
|
| Very Favorable (19%) |
2%
|
96%
|
| Somewhat Favorable (43%) |
3%
|
94%
|
| Neither Favorable nor Unfavorable (28%) |
14%
|
82%
|
| Somewhat Unfavorable (5%) |
25%
|
67%
|
| Very Unfavorable (6%) |
87%
|
7%
|
| Vote by Importance of Election |
McCain
|
Obama
|
| Extremely Important (45%) |
9%
|
87%
|
| Very Important (33%) |
14%
|
81%
|
| Somewhat Important (21%) |
12%
|
83%
|
| Not Important (1%) |
50%
|
50%
|
| Vote by Prediction of Election Outcome |
McCain
|
Obama
|
| Obama (75%) |
11%
|
83%
|
| McCain (4%) |
54%
|
56%
|
| Depends/Not sure (21%) |
9%
|
87%
|




Comments
I thought the most
I thought the most interesting statistic was how important people thought the election was versus how they would vote. 50% of those who think the election isn't important support McCain? Do they feel an Obama victory is a foregone conclusion and have stopped caring? Are they simply cynical, or perhaps just not paying attention?
Although 50% who think the
Although 50% who think the election isn't important support Obama too.
Jacob, interesting analysis,
Jacob, interesting analysis, but I would caution against taking these results too seriously. Our mock election survey was intended to be mostly fun and informal, not scientific by any means. We have no way of knowing whether the results actually reflect the true opinions of participants.
Secondly, only a very small number of people said the election was not at all important to them, and among this small group, as Kody pointed out, the votes were split equally between McCain and Obama.
P.S. To clarify, the actual question was something like "how important is the outcome of this election to you" -- a little different than simply how important is the election.
wow obama won by a lot
wow obama won by a lot
UPDATES
The electorate breakdown has been expanded to include third-party vote percentages, however, third-party vote percentages are not listed. One hundred percent less the combined percentages of John McCain and Barack Obama of each row equals the percentage amount for third-party candidates.
Also, the majority percentage number in each row is now highlighted in yellow.
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